每次總統(tǒng)大選結(jié)束后，位于華盛頓特區(qū)的美國(guó)國(guó)家情報(bào)委員會(huì)（The National Intelligence Council，NIC）都會(huì)發(fā)布一份關(guān)于安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的報(bào)告，為美國(guó)情報(bào)界提供長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略分析。該委員會(huì)于12月10日發(fā)布了最新報(bào)告《2030年全球趨勢(shì)：不一樣的世界》（Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds），其中涉及跨邊境沖突、恐怖主義和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰等諸多話題。

其中有一個(gè)主題尤為引人注意，即中國(guó)可能面臨的糧食與水資源危機(jī)。報(bào)告稱，氣候變化，加上中國(guó)的城市化進(jìn)程和中產(chǎn)階級(jí)生活方式的興起，至2030年，中國(guó)將產(chǎn)生巨大的用水需求以及伴隨而來(lái)的糧食短缺。報(bào)告中寫道：“到2030年，水將成為比能源或礦產(chǎn)更為搶手的資源。”

截至2030年，全球食物需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加超過(guò)35%，而這意味著世界需要更多的水。畢竟，農(nóng)業(yè)與畜牧業(yè)占到全球總用水量的70%。根據(jù)一項(xiàng)重要的國(guó)際研究顯示，全球水需求量將比當(dāng)前的可持續(xù)供水量高出40%以上。

中國(guó)將是最容易受到這種趨勢(shì)影響的國(guó)家。比如，報(bào)告指出，水荒（正在融化的喜馬拉雅冰川無(wú)濟(jì)于事）、土壤貧化等環(huán)境壓力，以及城市化帶來(lái)的農(nóng)業(yè)可用地壓力，將使中國(guó)谷物產(chǎn)量面臨巨大挑戰(zhàn)。中國(guó)是世界主要小麥生產(chǎn)國(guó)，也是第二大玉米生產(chǎn)國(guó)與消費(fèi)國(guó)，僅次于美國(guó)。

但到2030年，中國(guó)甚至可能無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)小麥和玉米的自給自足，將不得不增加進(jìn)口，而NIC得出的結(jié)論是，這可能引發(fā)“國(guó)際市場(chǎng)糧食價(jià)格大幅上漲。”

如果中國(guó)和其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家能夠找到提高作物產(chǎn)量和維護(hù)水資源的新方法，以上預(yù)測(cè)的狀況便不會(huì)發(fā)生。NIC推薦了三項(xiàng)需要開發(fā)的新技術(shù)：轉(zhuǎn)基因作物、精細(xì)農(nóng)業(yè)和高科技灌溉。

• NIC認(rèn)為，在分子生物學(xué)的推動(dòng)下，植物遺傳學(xué)取得重大突破，前景廣闊，將實(shí)現(xiàn)未來(lái)15 - 20年內(nèi)的糧食安全。通過(guò)分子植物育種，可以設(shè)計(jì)出需要少量化肥的抗蟲抗旱作物。中國(guó)等國(guó)家可能需要克服來(lái)自消費(fèi)者和國(guó)際監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的阻力。

 

 

 

 

After each Presidential election, The National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Washington, D.C., agency that provides long-term strategic analysis to America's intelligence community, releases a report on security risks. Its newest report, issued on December 10th and called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, covers many topics from cross-border conflict to terrorism to regional economic collapse.

One theme in particular that stands out this year is the coming food and water crisis in China. According to the report, climate change coupled with China's move toward urbanization and middle class lifestyles will create huge water demand and therefore crop shortages by 2030. As the report states: "Water may become a more significant source of contention than energy or minerals out to 2030."

Globally, demand for food is estimated to increase by more than 35% by 2030 and that means the world will need more water. After all, agriculture and livestock account for 70% of our water use. According to a major international study, global water requirements—mostly to sustain agriculture and livestock—will rise to 40% above our current sustainable water supplies.

China is particularly vulnerable to this trend. The report points out, for example, that cereal production in China faces significant challenges from environmental stresses relating to water scarcity—the melting Himalayan glaciers aren't helping—soil depletion, and pressures on land availability from urbanization. China is a major wheat producer and the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the US.

By 2030, though, China may no longer be self-sufficient in these crops and might be forced to increase its imports potentially triggering, the NIC concludes, "a significant price run-up on international markets."

None of this needs to happen if China—as well as other developing nations—pursue new methods to increase crop yields and preserve water. The NIC suggests three new technologies that need to be developed: GMO crops, precision agriculture, and high-tech irrigation.

• The NIC believes that breakthroughs in plant genetics—enabled by molecular biology—hold great promise for achieving food security in the next 15-20 years. Insect and drought resistant crops that require small amounts of fertilizer can be designed through molecular plant breeding. Nations like China will have to overcome consumer and international regulatory resistance.